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Cheaper oil brings big opportunities

By Zheng Xin | China Daily | Updated: 2020-04-16 10:06
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An oil tanker docks at a port in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, on Feb 19. [Photo by Yao Feng / For China Daily]

While it might be a good opportunity to buy larger amounts at current prices, it still depends on costs and market conditions, said Tang Sisi, an analyst at research firm BloombergNEF.

Tang said that despite the uncertainties of the contagion's impact on refined oil products, low crude prices will help increase gross margins among domestic refiners. However, the growth of China's overall imports depends on storage availability and the recovery of fuel demand.

Li from ICIS agreed, saying that with softening domestic crude demand and China's potential purchase of more US oil as part of their bilateral trade deal, there could be some structural changes in China's crude purchase.

S&P Global Platts Analytics adjusted its 2020 global oil demand growth outlook down to 860,000 barrels per day, marking the weakest forecast since 2011. Asian refined products demand is expected to grow by 380,000 bpd in 2020, "posting its weakest growth since the global financial crisis in 2009", Platts said.

Considering the recently agreedupon reduction in global output in the current quarter, which is expected to continue over the upcoming 24 months, oil prices are unlikely to fall below $10 a barrel, Li said.

She said containment of the contagion's spread could help prop up oil prices. Otherwise, the pandemic might continue causing demand for jet fuel, gasoline and diesel to crash.

Nelson Wang, executive director of CICC research, said oil prices are expected to remain low for a bit longer, at least until the next OPEC meeting scheduled for June.

Wang also suggested China might take advantage of lower crude prices to exercise opportunistic buying and fill up its strategic petroleum reserve.

Global oil demand has dropped by as much as 30 percent, or about 30 million bpd, as measures to reduce the virus' spread have caused demand for jet fuel, gasoline and diesel to crash.

The slowing global economic growth and the ever-maturing new energy market have also contributed to oil price weakness, said Wang Li, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, adding the extremely low price of $30 per barrel or less will not last long, and prices are expected to gradually rebound in the near future.

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