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Experts predict new high for global stock markets

(xinhua)
Updated: 2007-03-05 11:41

Global stock markets will scale new heights this year, due largely to excess liquidity, according to Zhu Min, vice governor of Bank of China (BOC), one of China's major commercial banks.

The prediction appears in a research report Zhu released Friday in partnership with Wen Bin, a senior analyst with BOC international finance research institute.

Zhu and Wen said global stock markets turned in a robust performance last year with record highs, a result mainly of better corporate profitability, excess liquidity worldwide and continuing low interest rates.

According to the report, there is plenty of room for further rises in global stock markets, but it warned that risks are also on the up. The potential risks are covered by excess-liquidity-driven market surges for the time being, but markets are increasingly volatile. The global markets will reach a new climax this year amid increased volatility with risks becoming more serious in 2008, the report forecast.

Around the globe, both nominal and real-term interest rates are now at the lowest level for 30 years. The super low interest rates will mean excess liquidity for quite a lengthy period. Excess liquidity contributed 20 percent to market rises worldwide last year but could contribute as much as 50 percent this year, the report said.

Stock market rises will be driven by capital flowing from commodity futures and real estate markets into equity markets, according to the report.