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China Daily Website

'Tapering' of QE by US would benefit world: Economists

Updated: 2013-11-21 23:51
By GAO CHANGXIN in Shanghai ( China Daily)

Last week, Dalian Wanda Group Co Ltd, China's largest commercial property company and the world's largest cinema chain operator, was said to be planning a US dollar bond offering of $300 million to $500 million. Chinese developers had already issued $17.88 billion in debt as of Oct 20, while the figure for the full year of 2012 was only $8 billion, according to a recent report by Moody's Investors Service, a credit rating agency.

Recovery in the US is still at best mild. Dariusz Kowalczyk, an economist with Credit Agricole CIB Asia Research, wrote in a research note on Thursday that the US top-line Producer Price Index likely fell 0.3 percent in October, dragged down by lower natural gas prices. Price pressures in the core PPI should also be limited in line with recent trends, likely rising 0.1 percent.

The November Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, an index that tracks manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district, likely declined to 21.0 from 22.3, pointing to weakening industrial activity.

"What the Fed is going to do is not stop stimulating. It's finding a different way to stimulate that is more effective," said ANZ's Zhou.

The Fed's quantitative easing programs already have amounted to $3 trillion, but they're not having the desired effect on the economy

Since the fourth quarter of 2010, the Fed's balance has expanded by $1.44 trillion. A total of $1.422 trillion — 99 percent — of that expansion has simply stayed at the Fed, locked up in the basement vault, in the form of excess reserves.

One way to make quantitative easing more effective is to extend the forward guidance on short-term rates, such as telling the world that Fed funds will remain near zero for a long time, said DBS Bank Ltd, a Singaporean lender, in a report on Thursday.

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