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China shows recovery signs, US job loss slows

(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-02-05 08:11

Job seekers (R), seen here on January 27, 2009, speak to career counselors at the "Back to Work: Jumpstart Your Job Search" event at the New York Public Library in New York City. [Agencies]

BEIJING/LONDON -- Improved manufacturing data from China on Wednesday suggested its downturn may be bottoming out and US employment figures were not quite as bad as forecast, but crisis-hit Russia's sovereign debt rating was cut.

US data showed another steep drop in private sector employment but the rate of job losses slowed in January for the first time since September last year. ADP Employer Services said private employers cut 522,000 jobs in January -- slightly fewer than forecast -- after a revised 659,000 jobs were lost in December.

This marked the first slowdown for four months but analysts were cautious before wider US payrolls data on Friday. "I wouldn't put too much meaning into this report. Overall, aside from the the job losses, consumption all over the world is down. That's troubling," said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

Hopes for a recovery in China helped to lift Asian share prices and a parallel report showed the pace of decline in Europe's dominant service sector also slowed.

But the Russian debt rating downgrade sent the euro tumbling against the dollar and the yen, due to fears of a steep economic downturn across much of central and eastern Europe.

Glimmers in China

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There are signs that China's economy may improve soon as official purchasing managers' index for January rose to 45.3, up from 41.2 in December and a record low of 38.8 plumbed in November.

Although the sub-50 reading indicated manufacturing was still contracting, Zhang Liqun, a government economist, said the index offered evidence that the economy was "gradually bottoming out".

Mingchun Sun, an economist with Nomura in Hong Kong, went a step further, saying that the worst was already past.

"China's GDP growth will be V-shaped in 2009, with the bottom already being reached in Q4 2008," said Sun in a note.

China's economy grew at 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter, dragging full-year growth to a seven-year low of 9.0 percent.

Central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan said in remarks published on Wednesday that government pump priming had scored early successes but remained wary with risks of bad loans and an export collapse still clouding the horizon.

"According to economic figures for December, the domestic stimulus policies have achieved initial results," Zhou told the Financial News.

Faced with an abrupt slump, the government unveiled a $585 billion spending plan in November and stepped up efforts to boost demand.

Another sign that Beijing's efforts is bearing fruit came in a report that Chinese banks had answered the government's call and extended a monthly record of 1.2 trillion yuan ($176 billion) in new loans in January.

The global importance of reviving the Chinese economy was underscored when data showed that car sales in China had topped those in the United States in January for the first time.

Europe Nearing the Bottom?

Data from the developed world has remained mostly gloomy -- Wednesday's figures showed euro zone retail sales fell more than expected year-on-year in December and November sales were revised, showing a much deeper drop than before.

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