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WORLD> Middle East
Iraq: Emerging state or a state of emergency?
By Zhang Haizhou (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-06-30 10:00

Seeing Chen Guo relaxing on the beach under the hot Hawaiian sun, few onlookers would guess less than 12 months ago he was staring death in the face every day.

Iraq: Emerging state or a state of emergency?
An Iraqi man looks out of his front gate as a US soldier leads the last US-Iraq patrol in Khan Bani Saad, some 10 km south of the town of Baquba, on Sunday. US combat troops will pull out from Iraq's cities and main towns today. [Agencies]

Back then, he was a United States Army corporal driving armored vehicles through the heart of Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, and in late 2008, his worst nightmare came true when his truck was hit by a roadside bomb during a routine patrol.

His fellow soldiers were all badly injured, with some left permanently disabled, but Chen escaped with just minor injuries. It was enough to bring an end to his tour of duty in the Middle East, which had started in August 2007.

"It's so nice to be able to wander in the streets with no need to wear a helmet or bullet-proof vest, or worry about roadside bombs or snipers," said the 25-year-old, who grew up in Beijing before becoming a US citizen in 2005. "I just wanted to get out of there alive."

Today, as the US begins its strategic withdrawal from Iraqi cities, Chen is thousands of miles away. He now lives in Hawaii, where he will start university in August to study film courtesy of the US government, which gives him a $3,000 monthly allowance, including $1,000 for winning the Purple Heart, an award given to wounded soldiers.

Iraq: Emerging state or a state of emergency?

His former combat colleagues are not so lucky and still face real danger from insurgent attacks as they pull out of Baghdad and Mosul, a move that was scheduled for June 30, which Iraq and the US stipulated while signing the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) last November.

US troops will be shifted to bases outside the country's major cities, ready to respond if called on by the Iraqi security forces, which will be responsible for maintaining stability.

"We will come out of the cities. We will provide some trainers, advisers and liaison officers in Mosul but that'll be it," General Ray Odinero, the top US commander in Iraq, told Reuters.

But experts believe the pullout will be easier said than done.

"From a military point of view, the troops could be attacked easily during the pullout process," explained Zhao Xiaozhuo, a military expert for China's Academy of Military Science. "Anti-US groups, such as the al-Qaida branch in Iraq and other extremists, may conduct counter-attacks to highlight the 'failure of Washington'."

Made up of 500,000 police officers and 250,000 soldiers, the Iraqi security forces have outdated weapons, while their funding has also been affected by the global financial crisis and the drop in oil prices, said Zhao.

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"The situation could worsen at any time after the withdrawal. The danger of a civil war in Iraq cannot be eliminated," he added.

Li Guofu, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, also predicted a rise in the number of terrorist attacks in Iraqi cities after the pullout.

There are as many as 800 Chinese citizens living in Iraq, according to an official at the nation's embassy in Baghdad. Most are employed by Chinese companies to work on large reconstruction projects.

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